Bihar Election 2015, Government and Governance. Could NDA come in Power?

Results of Bihar Board examinations has got declared and the toppers are in the list of ‘suspicious’ people. One particular college in Hajipur is under scanner for favoritism by Fodder Scam King for supporting in getting best results, though students don’t seem to be of that quality. Mr. Ashok Chaudhary (Education Minister, from INC) is the boss who is supposed to provide quality education system in Bihar. Similar is the state of many schools/colleges in Bihar which are privately managements by ‘musclemen’ and/or ‘influential’ people. My sister also appeared for her high school Board exam, and it was surprising to note that despite doing her best, she got average marks in Math and Science courses. I have recommended her to challenge the same and get is justified.

This made me to travel down the memory lane of 2015, when state election in Bihar was announced. Nitish ji (a PM aspirant) chose a different path and decided to gel with people who were untouchable for him and his party 10 years back. His first term as CM was really commendable and we saw developments in/around Bihar. Second term saw him being lenient in taking many actions. He gained lot of weight (physically, mentally as well as politically). The confidence level was moving towards overconfidence.

The state election 2015 brought forward following result:

Table-1: Results of Bihar state Election 2015

Party	Seats	Vote Share	Total Seats contested
RJD	80	18.35	101
JDU	71	16.83	101
BJP	53	24.42	157
INC	27	6.66	41
LJP	2	4.83	42
RLSP	2	2.56	23
HAMS	1	2.27	21
Indep.	4	9.39	1150
Others	3
Total	243

 

As the seat sharing goes by numbers, RJD + JDU became natural choice for next government. I won’t dig deep on what went right, what went wrong? But I certainly have my doubts with ‘Laloo degree’ awarded 10^th and 12^th pass candidates getting highest ministry in State to serve people of Bihar. Hope Nitish ji’s conscience has allowed all this.

This result led to another thought, of how many actually voted in the election. To my utter surprise, women stood out then men in higher voting share. Women have a different way of looking at things. They notice small un-noticeable things. They either miss the larger picture, or don’t predict a future of the emotional decisions they take on that day.

Table-2: Number of eligible voters vs. people voted in state election.

	Male	Female	Total
Enrolled	35,782,181	31,272,523	67,056,820
Voted	19,078,453	18,914,687	37,993,173
%	53.32%	60.48%	56.66%

 

There are people like me, who are eligible voters, but decided not to vote for two simple reasons.

1.     They are out of Bihar, and cannot make it possible to attend. For me, it was like taking two days leave from office, and spend 30,000⁺ on air-tickets for fly from Mumbai. Voting for me was a secondary activity but I persuaded my parents for casting of right vote.

2.     People who are staying in Bihar only, but feels that this is not their job. Such Lazy people don’t feel like standing in Queue for 2 hours, but they have endless hours to accuse the bad decisions of government.

So considering that these 57% people are actually the decision makers, vote share is mentioned in Table-1. I would like micro-management experts (Prashant Kishor ji, if you are reading it – pay attention here) to re-look at the Table-1, and especially on Vote Share.  

People gave a fractured mandate.  RJD under Laloo ji managed to get the highest 80 seats, but his vote share is 18.35%.

BJP, though stood third in the election, has highest reach of 24.42%. In many contesting constituencies, they came second. If I could predict and add the total votes given to BJP candidates in entire state, vote share may cross 50%. There was definitely undercurrent, but local issues and brain washing by Micro-Managers did the trick and NDA lost its opportunity.

Nitish ji, in his individual capacity has lost to Laloo Yadav’s stature and managed second position. His clean image may further get tarnished, under the shadow of tainted peoples around.

However, the mandate still says that current government is not the right government. With a vote share of 42% only, current government is running the state. Had it been NDA, as mentioned in Table-3, the governance would be far better with more people happy and content with the ideal government as per their wish. It is always advisable to make a government which has a winning reach of 60%.

Table-3: Understanding voter’s mindset.

Combination	Seats	Vote Share
For govt.	122	> 50%
RJD+INC	107	25.01
JDU+BJP	124	41.25
NDA*	133	60.3
JDU+RJD	151	35.18
RJD+INC+JDU		41.84

NDA*: JDU+BJP+LJP+RLSP+HAMS+Independent

My recommendation:

0. Improve the basic education system in Bihar. Its painful to see students copying in examination center. Its painful to note that students only come for free lunches, not for studying. Its painful to note that good teachers want to teach, but students are not interested. Its painful to note that new recruits doesn't have the right knowledge to teach students the right things.

1.       The Nitish ji (CM) and Sushil Modi (Dy.CM) combination has worked well in past. The same should repeat again for betterment of Bihar and Central Government.

2.       Nitish ji : Think above party line and personal ambition. Some sacrifices are necessary for a bigger and larger gain.

3.       Sushil Modi ji: Try understanding the mood of Bihari’s. You are the part of it. Let outsiders doesn’t take toll on you. Decide for yourself and convey the same to Modi Sr.

4.       Amit Shah ji: Time to chalk out indifferences and make right move. There is no harm in doing Chaai pe Charcha with right people for right and virtuous things. A joint venture is far better many times, than having a standalone company.

5.       Bihari’s: Wake up. We have immense talent. Problem is our talent is killing ourselves only. Let’s unite our strength and create miracles.

6.       Policy and Lawmakers: Please stop playing with Bihar for your personal gains. Kindly rise above and do what is right and justified for a better and glorious Bihar.

Source:

For data: http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/StatisticalReports/AE2015/Stat_Bihar_AE2015.pdf

http://www.elections.in/bihar/