India clocked an economy of USD 2.875 Trillion in 2019 – A happy year with GDP crossing 8+% and it looked that ‘Achche Din’ shall not remain a distant dream – rather achievable. And by end of 2019 – Chinese Virologist gave the beautiful Nano-particle sized gift to the World to SUFFER. India, like other countries, is still grappling under the menace of pandemic with practically everything closed.
Country cannot remain on SHUT mode and Government cannot print currency and pay to common man to consume and try to survive. SHOW MUST GO ON. COVID-19 vaccines are yet to be found out, but recovery rate is over 90% that gives a boost to decision makers that let us accept this as new Normal. Safeguard kids and senior citizens. Safeguard Co-morbid, moms to be and let the WHEEL of economy move again. With this steely determination, government has started phased unlocking of businesses and economies. At personal level, I have been home locked for 5+ months now. There are hopes that Bharat Biotech, ZYDUS Cadilla, or Cerum Institute of India, may come up with vaccines by end of Dec’20 – and we may have Achche Din (in some sense) in 2021. During this lockdown I became Father of second kid. Unfortunately, my parents and first kid are home locked at hometown. Happiness also, comes in pieces. Wish I could have enjoyed this home lock situation with both kids around.
At professional level: We at JSW did feeble production in April due to complete lockdown of entire country. Production started in May and we are crossing 80% of production levels consecutively in August. Company is somehow able to manage Cash Flow since cash outgo are fixed, inflow has huge restriction due to poor demand, and constrained financials of customers too.
The above background is just to generate your interest in reading further. Indian policymakers, riding on good economy and outlook, undertook a target of USD 5 Trillion by 2025 which looked doable, though challenging, if everything goes fine. It was a modest 10% GDP growth every year to achieve the target (Case-0). I have assumed 8% GDP growth for 2020 here (had COVID-19 pandemic not surfaced and gripped entire globe). So where are we, with respect to the dream? Is it still doable.?
The data/image till 2019 has been taken from MOSPI (Ministry of Stats & Program Implementation) and World Bank!
2020 has been calculated with various assumption, w.r.t. 2019.
Case-0: (theoretical) 8% GDP growth for 2020 (basis which GoI took ambitious target)
Case-1: (likely) 25% contraction in economy as expected by CRISIL and even my thoughts.
Case-2: (optimistic) 6% contraction in economy (Oct-March FY21 is expected a rebound)
|
Billion USD |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
|
Case-0 |
2713.17 |
2875.14 |
3105.15 |
|
Case-1 |
2713.17 |
2875.14 |
2156.36 |
|
Case-2 |
2713.17 |
2875.14 |
2713.17 |
If the above condition is considered, and a 5 trillion USD economy is extrapolated, we have a growth rate of 10% (discussed above), 18% and 13% respectively.
|
Billion USD |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
|
|
Case-0 |
2713.17 |
2875.14 |
3105.15 |
@10% growth Rate |
5,000 |
||||
|
Case-1 |
2713.17 |
2875.14 |
2156.36 |
@18.3% growth Rate |
5,000 |
||||
|
Case-2 |
2713.17 |
2875.14 |
2713.17 |
@13 % growth Rate |
5,000 |
||||
If miracles happen, viz. all assets of Temples, Churches and Mosques are given in PM Care Fund or RBI to support Liquidity and money outflow for various developmental activities and all businesses clock-in a double digit growth, another 'Aatmnirbhar Andolan' wherein all women in country let go of their GOLD and deposit the same in RBI, for free, etc., CASE-2 may be feasible, but unlikely. In reality, I do not see GDP remaining at 2018 levels.
This brings to plotting likely scenarios and a doable target. Again, I have kept the three cases till 2020 as mentioned above. Case-0 is ruled out since it’s not the case going to be. Here the plotting has been made with assumption of 8% growth rate in 2021 and 2022. Once the momentum is set, 10% GDP growth is assumed for remaining year.
|
Likely |
Year |
||||||||||||
|
Billion USD |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
|
Case-1 |
2713.17 |
2875.14 |
2156.36 |
2328.86 |
2515.17 |
2766.69 |
3043.36 |
3347.7 |
3682.46 |
4050.71 |
4455.78 |
4901.36 |
5391.5 |
|
Case-2 |
2713.17 |
2875.14 |
2713.17 |
2930.22 |
3164.64 |
3481.11 |
3829.22 |
4212.14 |
4633.35 |
5096.69 |
5606.36 |
6166.99 |
6783.69 |
* In the likely scenario, we expect to become a 5 Trillion USD economy by
2030.
* In the optimistic scenario, we expect to cross 5 Trillion USD economy
by 2027.
We have achieved 10% GDP many a times in previous years. But the ride ahead is roller coaster ride. Political uncertainty, Border Disputes, Weak Opposition, non-performing government functionaries, NPA’s at banks, Capitalist economy, an autocratic government wherein voice of opposition is not heard – where a working middle class common man is left on its own despite being an honest tax payer, where poorest of poor is bereft of benefits marked for them and the same is eaten away by lobbyists, where policy made doesn’t see the light of tunnel in its entirety – it looks very difficult that the target shall be achieved even by 2031.
Systems have many de-railing variables. For Indian Policy Makers to ensure achieving the target, they’ll need to bow down a little. Remain firm on decisions taken but keep everyone on the same boat with same goal. A Boat with all sailors sailing in same direction moves faster than a boat with few sailing in other directions.
I’ll close my post with following lines of Dushyant Kumar ji.
हो गई है पीर पर्वत-सी पिघलनी चाहिए, इस हिमालय से कोई गंगा निकलनी चाहिए।
आज यह दीवार, परदों की तरह हिलने लगी, शर्त लेकिन थी कि ये बुनियाद हिलनी चाहिए।
हर सड़क पर, हर गली में, हर नगर, हर गाँव में, हाथ लहराते हुए हर लाश चलनी चाहिए।
सिर्फ हंगामा खड़ा करना मेरा मकसद नहीं, सारी कोशिश है कि ये सूरत बदलनी चाहिए।
मेरे सीने में नहीं तो तेरे सीने में सही, हो कहीं भी आग, लेकिन आग जलनी चाहिए।
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