The frenzy and fanfare around State elections ended with springing some surprises. While BJP is beating its chest of retaining 4/5 states, AAP is eyeing 2024 general elections with Arvind Kejriwal as global CM (I mean PM).
The results are out and process of governance
and policy makers who shall occupy the ministerial berths, are ongoing. The
analyst in me tried to peep into numbers and take the strategic insights. The
table below are the numbers in nutshell and results.
I will now go state-wise; in my analysis.
Punjab:
Incredible win from AAP. They repeat the Dilli
story. This win says, people were actually fed up with Congress or Akalis. The
nautanki of Sidhu, Channi and Farmer’s agitation all supported AAP as an
alternative. I really hope and wish Bhagwant Mann delivers on the promises
made. Going into number game:
· * Total voters turn out in 2022 is
<1% of 2017
· * AAP however got 10% higher votes this
time than what Congress got in 2017
· * Congress got 2.4% lower votes than
what AAP got in 2017.
Message is clear, perform or perish. Punjabi’s
have woken up and wants a good governance in Punjab. In case Bhagwant Mann
delivers in next 600 days – it shall give an alternative to BJP and other
ruling parties in other states too. An alternate to ruling is the need of the
hour.
Uttarakhand:
I do not exactly know what worked in favor
here. Frequently changing CMs or BJP’s commitment to keep Dev-bhoomi in its
pristine and glorious form – but BJP retained the pole position – though the CM
lost his own seat! BJP must not take this lightly. The signal according to me
is that public is saying BJP’s work is fine but Pushkar is not fine. The number
game says:
· * 8.2% people voted more than the
numbers of voters in 2017
· * However, BJP garnered only 3% of
additional votes compared to 2017
· * Congress actually increased the vote
share, the increase has been 22.4%
· * Ruling party actually lost 10 seats
compared to their tally in 2017
Harish Rawat has actually done a good job. He
should not be fired. Problem is he doesn’t have support of fire power from
delhi, like BJP has from likes of Modi, Shah, etc. Congress should connect at
grass root level, do district level developments and they should deliver as a
constructive opposition.
Uttar
Pradesh:
Entire ecosystem is offering credit to Maharaj
ji for the maverick win. Unfortunate part is 10 of his cabinet members lost the
seat. I see this as a bad sign – governance is not actually good, though portrayal
is better! Bulldozers and running after mafia should be one of the cleaning
activities, not only cleaning activity. Going by number game:
· * People turn out is 6.3% higher
compared over 2017
· * BJP could get 10.6% of additional
votes in this election
· * However, SP got 56% of additional
votes compared over 2017
· * Ruling party actually lost 57 seats
compared to their tally in 2017
· In general, public is telling that
they want only 3-4 parties to contest. They are fed-up with mushrooms.
Maharaj ji should tone down and introspect.
2024 – Modiji has to continue as PM. You have FIVE more years to serve UP
before you eye the PM position in 2019. Please serve them with pure heart and
no vendetta politics please. Give them good governance. Numbers are not in your
favor if you deep dive into it.
Manipur
BJP made a khichdi in 2017 and came into
power. However, the good governance awarded them a second term. The CM must get
accolades for his effort in instilling confidence among my Manipuri friends.
Keep doing good words. Your efforts shall yield fruits in other of the seven
sister states. The number game:
· * Votes turn out has been 12% higher
over 2017
· * BJP got 17% higher votes over last
election – that gives a confidence in governance.
· * Congress moved from top position to
no.3 in last 5 years. This is a grave concern
BJP must continue reforms and ensure that
people get what is promised. The khichdi made in 2017 was actually for good.
Goa
Pramod sawant repeated Manipur in Goa! There
was a khichdi there also, but getting to 50%, mark is a staller achievement.
There are many unfinished tasks that CM need to complete, un-employment, law &
order and land/sand mafias are some of them. The number game:
· * Total vote turnout was 3.8% higher
this time.
· * BJP managed to get 6.4% higher votes
compared last time.
· * Congress vote share shrink by 14.2% in
last 5 years.
Congress needs a serious introspection. They
seem are losing ground. Goa need to seriously work on governance front. I
seriously want Pramod Sawant to become next Manohar Parikkar. However, a
request – please give chance to Utpal Parikkar. He needs your support.
In summary,
For BJP: Modi wave shall not last forever.
Yogi wave is not tsunami in UP. Law & order is poor and bribe is at peak.
Hope monk truly walks the talk and bring Ramrajya in UP.
SP: Akhilesh must really work hard on ground.
There are many ground work or connect with masses – numbers are favoring you.
Move from caste politics and add values.
AAP: Focus on good governance. Your 600 days
in Punjab shall shape your future and can create wave for ‘Yugpurush’ as PM
candidate in 2029.
Congress: You must understand that millennials
damn value the Gandhi Khandaan or even Late Mr. Gandhi. Congress must
differentiate between party and family. Family is actually deteriorating the age-old
party. Pave way for capable people to lead from front. You have got sufficient
financials. Move to London or Seychelles or Italy and live happily please.
